Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Terrelle Pryor probably isn't a murderer

I don't know how I forgot to post this over the weekend, but Terrelle Pryor offered up the postgame quote of the year on Saturday -- and it had absolutely nothing to do with Ohio State's win over Navy.

In case you didn't see the game, Pryor was wearing eyeblack stickers (partially visible above) with "Vick" written on them, which seemed a little odd. When asked about it after the game, this was Pryor's hilarious response:
"I just feel that, I mean, he made his mistake and ... not everybody’s the perfect person in the world. I mean everyone kills people, murders people, steals from you, steals from me, whatever."
Ummm ... what?!? I can't speak for Pryor, but I'm pretty sure that a large majority of us don't kill people. And was that an effort to defend Michael Vick? If so, he'd probably prefer that Pryor just kept his mouth closed. I don't think the Philadelphia Eagles will be deploying "Everyone kills people!" as a marketing slogan anytime soon.

What was even more absurd than Pryor's comment, though, was Yahoo writer Dan Wetzel's take on the situation. Wetzel completely flew off the handle Wednesday, claiming that Pryor's First Amendment right to freedom of expression is being destroyed as writers and fans criticize a victim of oppression:
They’ve forgotten that campuses are supposed to be marketplaces of ideas where a diversity of thought is encouraged. They’ve rejected that college is supposed to be a time for young people to find their voice.
OK, I'm all for "diversity" and allowing "young people to find their voice," and I have no problem whatsoever with Pryor supporting Vick and his return to the NFL. That's his right. But don't tell me about the First Amendment and then tell me I can't criticize an incredibly thoughtless comment like "everyone kills people."

I'm fairly sure that Pryor's intent wasn't to sound like a murderer -- words don't always convey the exact message intended -- but even if he's the nicest guy in the world (as Jim Tressel claims), when you're a big-time athlete in the media spotlight, you've gotta think before you open your mouth.

Hurricanes' season forecast looking good

Monday night's game between Miami and Florida State was probably the best so far this season. It didn't feel quite like the old days -- Miami wasn't even ranked -- but to see the two longtime rivals looking like legitimate ACC contenders was strangely satisfying for someone who's never been a fan of either one.

I'm not ready to go all Mark Schlabach on you and declare that Miami has returned to national prominence or that this game "was nearly as good as watching Boise State pull off a hook-and-lateral and Statue of Liberty against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl ... almost as good as watching Vince Young run into the end zone to beat USC in the 2006 Rose Bowl to win the national championship," because that's just ridiculous. It was a season opener, and until the fourth quarter, it didn't look much different than most FSU-Miami games.

But the thing that's been missing from this series for years has been offense, and the biggest news from Monday night is that both teams have one. Jacory Harris is seriously talented, and the comeback he engineered after an excruciatingly painful-looking hit on his right arm by FSU defensive back Greg Reid was nothing short of phenomenal. When was the last time you said that about a Miami quarterback?

Christian Ponder was just as good in defeat, matching Harris throw for throw and adding a couple huge QB draws that could have (and probably should have) been the difference in the game. For all the gut-wrenching missed field goals Florida State has endured, watching that final pass slip to the turf in the endzone as time expired had to be right up on there on the devastation scale.

But whether the Seminoles lost the game or the Hurricanes won it, there might not be a team in college football that feels better about its situation right now than Miami, and not just because of Monday night's victory. What once appeared to be an absolutely brutal stretch against four straight ranked teams -- Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma -- looks significantly more manageable after the first week of play. Georgia Tech's running game will be a different kind of test for Miami's defense, but Virginia Tech looked so abysmal against Alabama that I don't think a Miami upset is out of the question. As for Oklahoma, just see my previous post. If Miami's offense plays all season like it did Monday night, they'll be able to compete with anybody.

The stars are aligning nicely for the Hurricanes, and while I highly doubt that they can get through the aforementioned stretch undefeated, a 3-1 mark would put them in great position for a 10- or 11-win regular season and a possible ACC title. That might not seem all that spectacular compared with the great Hurricane teams of yore, but keep in mind that Miami hasn't won more than nine games since 2003. Gotta go one step at a time.

On a related note, your unintentional comedy of the week comes from the New York Post, where the page designers apparently don't know anything about college sports:
I suppose the one on the left is technically Miami, but it seems like that "Gators" emblem would be kinda hard to miss.

Double whammy

It wasn't supposed to go like this for Oklahoma, especially the upperclassmen who returned for another shot at a national title. Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham passed up a top-10 spot in the NFL draft to spend another year in Norman, and you don't see that very often.

This is why:

On Tuesday, the Sooners got more bad news when Gresham -- like Bradford, an NFL prospect who returned for another season -- had arthroscopic surgery to determine the extent of the cartilage damage in his right knee. Stoops said surgeons determined that Gresham needed stitches to repair the cartilage, and that he'll need about five months to recover.

That will put him out for the rest of Oklahoma's season.

Wow. With Juaquin Iglesias and Manuel Johnson no longer around, Gresham was expected to be the go-to guy this year, and with good reason: He had 66 catches for 950 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. He's not your ordinary tight end.

When Gresham tweaked his knee in practice last week, it was treated as a minor hindrance, something that might keep him out a week or two. It would be nothing but a blip en route to another dominating season. But now ... well, between Bradford and Gresham, everything has changed for OU in the last 72 hours.

Bob Stoops has to be in damage-control mode at this point, because if Landry Jones struggles and Bradford never really develops a repertoire with his young receivers after returning from a month-long layoff, there are at least three possible losses on the schedule (Miami, Texas and Oklahoma State), and I never thought I'd be saying that a week ago.

Monday, September 7, 2009

Seriously, what just happened?

If you'd told me sometime before Saturday that BYU would beat Oklahoma 14-13 while Alabama and Virginia Tech were busy putting 58 points on the board in Atlanta, I probably would have asked the following two questions:
  1. What are you smoking?
  2. How much have you already smoked?
There was a good reason for that 14-13 score, though, specifically this:
As Sam Bradford's shoulder was obliterated on the Cowboys Stadium turf, Oklahoma's dreams of a national title went with it -- and the guys playing about 200 miles away in Austin might as well have thrown themselves a party. Bob Stoops announced Monday that Bradford won't need surgery and should be back in a few weeks, but since a date with the Longhorns looms in just over a month and Bradford almost certainly won't be at 100% (or very sharp after a lengthy layoff), Texas' biggest test of the season now takes on a different tone: Anything other than a win in Dallas, an undefeated season and a trip to the national title game will be a big disappointment for Colt McCoy and Co.

Back to Saturday night's game, though, the outcome seems to have been mostly written off as a byproduct of Bradford's injury, but I think BYU deserves more credit than that. Holding Oklahoma to 10 points in the first half -- which Bradford played all of -- was impressive, and pulling off that game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter was even better. What I can't say is if BYU is actually that good or if Oklahoma just played that poorly -- I don't think we'll know the answer to that question until we have a little more context. But if BYU can run the table ... ahhh, never mind. All the tough games are at home, but those games are against Florida State, TCU and Utah. As good as the Cougars looked Saturday night, an undefeated season is probably out of the question.

I'm not sure you can say the same for Alabama, though. The Tide offense was very impressive against Virginia Tech, racking up 498 yards and scoring 34 points (and that easily could have been 42 if not for a couple missed red-zone opportunities). We knew the defense would be good, but if Alabama can move the ball like that against the Hokies ... man, they're gonna be tough to beat. LSU (at home) and Mississippi (in Oxford) will be the biggest tests, but it doesn't look like 'Bama has dropped off much -- if at all -- from last year.

As for Virginia Tech ... well, they're probably still the best team in the ACC, but that's just because the ACC is flat-out bad. Consider this: The conference's only win over an FBS team this weekend was by Clemson (over Middle Tennessee State), while Virginia and Duke both lost to FCS teams -- both at home -- by a combined 20 points. That's just awful.

And I don't know what to say about the Big Ten. Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State looked good, but almost everyone else in the conference looked pathetic. Ohio State seemed thoroughly uninspired against Navy, Illinois got clobbered by a decent but rebuilding Missouri team, Wisconsin had to hold off a late rally to beat Northern Illinois and Iowa verified that it has no offense whatsoever while needing two blocked field goals to survive against Northern Iowa. Oh, and Indiana needed a last-minute stop to beat Eastern Kentucky on Thursday.

It was an odd week, to say the least ... and I didn't even mention Notre Dame winning 35-0 or Florida State and Miami combining for 79 points (!!!) Monday night. My personal top 10 after Week 1 (keep in mind that this is NOT a projection of how they'll finish, just my opinion of which teams are the 10 best in the country right now):

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. USC
5. Ohio State
6. Oklahoma State
7. Boise State
8. Penn State
9. BYU
10. Oklahoma

I'm obviously basing Oklahoma's ranking on Sam Bradford's absence; I'll reassess them once he gets back on the field and we can see what their offense will actually look like this year. Cal and Ole Miss are probably deserving of inclusion, but it'd be hard to justify replacing any of the 10 teams above.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Blount done for the season

It was only a little over a month ago when these words were manifested from my own mind:
LeGarrette Blount could end up with some ridiculous numbers this year. The only thing that might keep him from putting up 1,500 yards: Jeremiah Masoli, who finished as the fourth-rated rushing quarterback in the country. In other words, Oregon's offense = terrifying.
I missed one other potential pitfall for Blount: complete insanity.



His punch to the face of Boise's Byron Hout wasn't the problem -- in fact, seeing the smirk wiped off Hout's face after unnecessarily taunting Blount was fairly amusing -- but when Blount went completely nuclear and shoved a teammate, went after the fans and had to be restrained by numerous players and a security guard, there was no doubt that he'd be in for some serious punishment. And so it is:
Star running back LeGarrette Blount won't play for Oregon again this year. The school suspended him on Friday for the remainder of season.
I wasn't expecting a season-long suspension -- I would have guessed about four or five games -- but it's hard to argue that he didn't deserve it. And Blount has had problems before: He was suspended in the spring for "failure to fulfill team obligations," which apparently had something to do with his inability to show up for team functions.

Honestly, though, I'm not sure whether the most concerning thing from Thursday night's ugliness was Blount's suspension or the fact that even with Blount, Oregon didn't have a single freakin' first down until midway through the third quarter. The offensive line couldn't block, Masoli couldn't throw and nobody could hang onto the ball. It was a horrific performance against a solid but unspectacular defense.

Oregon will probably get things together -- the offense was fine last year despite playing about 37 different quarterbacks because of injuries -- but a Pac-10 title is a pipe dream now (at least I didn't predict anything like that ... wait, I did?). Cal and USC obviously both have far better athletes on defense than Boise, and while some first-game sloppiness was to be expected, it's clear that Oregon has a lot of work to do -- especially now that their best player will be standing on the sidelines.

As for Boise, I wasn't surprised at all that the Broncos won -- a 60-2 home record in the last decade is hard to ignore, and they were actually favored by 3 points -- but the way Oregon's offensive line was manhandled was pretty stunning. If Boise's defense plays anywhere near that level for the rest of the season, the Broncos will finish 12-0 and play in a BCS bowl. No one in the WAC should be able to compete with them.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

I'll erase this post in five months

The countdown has hit zero. No more days to be spent waiting, no more anticipation. Four games kick off tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern time, and that means it's time to embarrass myself with some sure-to-be-inaccurate predictions for the season (nothing like the last minute, right?).

Here we go ...

* Florida will win the national championship. A loss is possible at some point -- it's still college football, after all -- but even a one-loss Gators team has a good shot at getting in the national title game (unless that loss is in the SEC championship game). And considering that they have almost everyone coming back from a team that beat Oklahoma -- which might still be the second-best team despite suffering significant personnel losses -- it'd be hard to pick anyone else to finish No. 1.

* Tim Tebow will become the second player in history to win the Heisman Trophy twice. Colt McCoy could give him a good run -- Tebow and Sam Bradford each have a Heisman already, so there will be some sentiment that it's McCoy's turn if Texas beats Oklahoma -- but I don't think there's ever been a returning player like Tebow, who has basically been proclaimed a saint and receives nothing but constant and effusive praise from everyone around him and in the media. I suppose this could backfire to an extent, but I think there are also a lot of voters who are eager to reward him for coming back for his senior season. And yes, if Tebow ends up with two Heismans and three national titles (although one came as a part-timer behind Chris Leak), I think he'll have to be considered the greatest college football player of all-time.

* USC will lose two games. I'm not sure which two (yay for being specific), but with road games at Ohio State, Cal, Notre Dame and Oregon along with home games against Oregon State and UCLA, I just have a feeling that this is the year the Trojans' ridiculous streak of top-five finishes comes to an end. If you put a gun to my head (please don't), I'd guess that the losses come against Ohio State and Oregon.

* Oregon will win at least a share of the Pac-10 title. I was shocked when I saw that the Vegas over/under on Oregon's wins was 7.5, because with USC and Cal both coming to Autzen Stadium, I think Oregon wins at least one of those two and finishes no worse than 9-3 overall. The catch: If the team that loses to the Ducks (USC or Cal) beats the other in Berkeley on Oct. 3, a three-way tie (like we saw in the Big 12 South last season) would actually go to the highest-ranked team in the BCS standings, so Oregon's game tonight against Boise might actually be the difference in whether the Ducks end up in Pasadena.

* Notre Dame gets to 9-3 and salvages Charlie Weis' job. I think ND is vastly overrated this year, but I just don't see many threats on the schedule. A split against Michigan and Michigan State, a loss to USC and a loss to Pitt (a fairly pessimistic view of their four toughest games) only gives the Irish three losses, and other than that ... UConn? Stanford? Meh. An ugly outing like we saw last year against Syracuse is certainly possible, but a strong start might even allow ND to have one of those bad games and still get to nine wins.

* Notre Dame won't play in a BCS bowl. The thing that will help the Irish get to nine wins is the same thing that will keep them out of the BCS: a weak schedule. It's likely that USC will be the only ranked team ND plays all year, and it'll be very hard for a team with fewer than 10 wins -- none of them over ranked teams -- to get into the top 12 in the BCS standings.

* Michigan will finish 7-5. I won't do a game-by-game breakdown, but there are five games on the schedule that should be definite wins for UM and five more that fall into the toss-up category (I'm putting Penn State and Ohio State down as probable losses). When I look at how close Michigan was in some of its losses last year despite playing a walk-on QB for half the season, committing a gazillion turnovers and starting freshmen everywhere, improvement seems to be a given. Assuming that Tate Forcier can provide competent quarterback play and force defenses to respect his running ability -- something that didn't happen last year with Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan -- that should be enough to swing a couple of those toss-up games and get UM into a respectable bowl. If I had to guess, I'd say UM beats Notre Dame (just because it's in Ann Arbor) and Wisconsin.

* If Boise State loses to Oregon tonight (yes, I'm hedging here), there will be no "BCS buster" this year. BYU, TCU and Utah are all ranked in the preseason polls, but BYU plays Oklahoma, TCU goes to Clemson and Utah visits Oregon. Oh, and they all have to play each other in the Mountain West. I don't see any of the three coming out unscathed. Boise State, on the other hand, should have a clear path through the WAC ... but the Broncos have to get past Oregon first.

* The winner of the Texas-Oklahoma game will run the table and play Florida for the national championship. And the winner of that game will be ... hold on while I flip a coin ... I'll go with Texas. It's basically a toss-up, but Oklahoma's rebuilding project on the offensive line concerns me just a bit, so right now, I feel like Texas is the slightly better team.

* Michigan State will fall short of expectations, but not by much. MSU is kind of in the same boat as Notre Dame: The schedule is favorable enough (missing Ohio State, for example) that it will be difficult to lose more than four games. But without Javon Ringer and with a new starting QB, I just don't see Sparty generating enough offense to avoid losing at least three. I'm predicting 8-4.

* Arizona State, picked as a dark horse in the Pac-10 by such geniuses as Mark May, will struggle to reach a bowl game. The offense could be atrocious -- the running game is nonexistent and Danny Sullivan should not be a Pac-10 starting quarterback -- and while the defense should be pretty good, a late-season stretch against Stanford, Cal, USC, Oregon and UCLA will be a killer. I think the Sun Devils' best-case scenario is 7-5, and 4-8 isn't out of the realm of possibility. I'll stay in the gooey middle and go with 6-6.

* If Ohio State beats USC (there's that "if" again), the Buckeyes will finish undefeated. Their only real challenge in the Big Ten is Penn State, so there's a good chance that the winner of the game in Happy Valley on Nov. 7 will run the table against the rest of the conference and finish 12-0. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Penn State wins in "Whiteout" conditions, but I like OSU's defense a lot, and the Bucks have come up just short in enough big games over the past few years that I feel like things are bound to go their way at some point.

And just to be sure that I make a complete idiot of myself, here's my projected top 10 at the end of the regular season (note that this is NOT a preseason ranking or a list of teams I think are the best, just a guess at how the polls will look going into the bowl games):

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma
5. Oregon
6. Penn State
7. USC
8. Alabama
9. LSU
10. Boise State

I originally had Virginia Tech at No. 10, but the ACC has enough good teams (Georgia Tech, Florida State, North Carolina, etc.) that I don't see the Hokies getting through unscathed without Darren Evans. And even if Boise State loses tonight against Oregon, I don't think the polls will be that punishing -- cruising through the WAC and finishing 11-1 would probably still be enough to get the Broncos into the top 10.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Catching up: Other things are happening

* I'm not sure about this, but I think USC might have had a worse week than Michigan. After losing Ronald Johnson for six to eight weeks because of a broken collarbone on Saturday, Pete Carroll announced on Monday that projected starting cornerback Shareece Wright has been declared academically ineligible and will have to sit out the season. The Trojans plan to slide Josh Pinkard (the only returning defensive starter other than Taylor Mays) from safety to corner while bringing backup safety Will Harris into the lineup. Wright missed most of last season with a neck injury, but he's obviously talented -- he started the first two games of '08 before his injury forced Pinkard to move from safety to cornerback, and his return this year was expected to do the opposite.

* Also having a bad week: Oklahoma State, which has seen starting tight end Jamal Mosley quit the team for personal reasons and starting cornerback Perrish Cox arrested on charges of speeding and driving with a suspended license. There's no word yet from Mike Gundy on whether Cox will be disciplined, but if he is, the Oklahoma State secondary will have none of last year's starters on the field this weekend against Georgia and stud sophomore A.J. Green. Cox is also the Cowboys' kick returner, by the way.

* Iowa running back Jewel Hampton, a sophomore who was expected to start after running for nearly 500 yards and scoring seven touchdowns last year behind Shonn Greene, will miss the season because of a lingering knee injury. Redshirt freshman Jeff Brinson is next on the depth chart, but he's still recovering from an ankle injury and will miss the season opener. Expect him to take over the starting job as soon as he's healthy. Iowa's offense wasn't exactly a juggernaut to begin with, but any hopes of duplicating last year's running-game success have now gone out the window. As for this week, the Hawkeyes should probably be glad that they're playing Northern Iowa: "Former walk-on Paki O'Meara will get the start at running back Saturday."

* Alabama defensive end Brandon Deaderick spent Tuesday night in the hospital after being shot in the arm during an attempted robbery in Tuscaloosa, although a spokesman reported that he was in good condition. Deaderick's status for the season is unknown, but he's a returning starter who had four sacks last season, and it seems safe to assume that he won't play Saturday in the Tide's huge season opener against Virginia Tech in Atlanta.

* Michigan State will go with redshirt sophomore Kirk Cousins as the starting quarterback. Cousins was in a dead heat throughout camp with former Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichols, but he was fairly impressive in mop-up duty last year behind the departed Brian Hoyer, and Mark Dantonio cited that experience as a factor in his decision. Nichols is also expected to get some playing time, but Cousins is considered the slightly better passer of the two. Considering that the Spartans lost Javon Ringer and his ridiculous 390 carries from last season -- relatively unknown redshirt freshman Caulton Ray is expected to start at running back this year ahead of true freshmen Edwin Baker and Larry Caper -- they'll need a boost from the passing game if they hope to have anything approaching a good offense.

* Former Miami quarterbacks Taylor Cook and Cannon Smith (both sophomores) have each found a home, with Cook announcing that he'll play at Rice and Smith choosing his hometown Memphis Tigers. Interesting note: Smith's father, Fred, is the founder of FedEx, so whether or not Cannon ever plays in the NFL, he's probably safe financially. But with Memphis starter Arkelon Hall entering his senior year, he should have a good shot at the starting job in 2010. Cook will have a bit more competition, as the two players battling for the starting job this year are junior J.T. Shepherd and sophomore Alabama transfer Nick Fanuzzi.

* Vanderbilt coach Bobby Johnson named redshirt sophomore Larry Smith the Commodores' starting quarterback Tuesday, choosing Smith over senior Mackenzi Adams. Adams has played well in two seasons of spot duty behind the injury-prone Chris Nickson, but Smith looked good enough in the Music City Bowl win over Boston College (when Adams was out with an injury) that he appeared to be the frontrunner heading into spring practice.