Boom goes the dynamite

I guess I should start by congratulating Alabama, your 2009-10 national champions. As good as I think Boise State is, I know 'Bama is deserving of the national title. The Tide will probably be a unanimous No. 1 when the final polls are released in the morning.

As for the game, I don't know what to say. It was wild, unpredictable and incredibly unfortunate, and there are a million different things I could write about. I'm just gonna break it all down into bullets to try to be as coherent as possible.

Here we go ...

* What a terrible, terrible way for Colt McCoy's career to come to an end. After playing four years for a shot at the national championship, he finally gets his chance ... and he gets knocked out of the game on Texas' fifth play from scrimmage. You could tell in his postgame interview that he was fighting to hold back tears, and I can't blame him. Sometimes life just isn't fair.

* Mack Brown should have read my preview:

... after the Nebraska debacle -- McCoy had 17 carries for minus-20 yards as Texas accumulated 18 rushing yards as a team -- I doubt Mack Brown will even bother with having McCoy run into the teeth of the nation's second-ranked rushing defense and get drilled repeatedly by Cody and Rolando McClain.

When McCoy went down, the game was all but over. Texas' confidence was gone and the offense disappeared for the next two and a half quarters; by the time they recovered, it was too late.

* Garrett Gilbert's performance in the first half was unspeakably bad: He was 1-for-10 for minus-4 yards with two interceptions, giving him a QB rating of minus-33.36 at halftime. His deer-in-the-headlights look brought back fond memories of the "boom goes the dynamite" kid. But when the light bulb went on at some point in the third quarter, he actually made things interesting by leading a comeback I never thought was possible against Alabama's defense. Texas will miss McCoy a lot, but the offense should be in good hands for the next few years.

* All the praise for Alabama was legit. The defense controlled the game for all but about a 10-minute stretch starting late in the third quarter, and while Greg McElroy didn't look a whole lot better than Garrett Gilbert, he didn't need to. The running game was awesome, racking up 205 yards against the nation's top-ranked rush defense. Texas hadn't allowed a 100-yard rusher all year, yet both Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson reached that number while scoring two touchdowns apiece. Alabama physically dominated on both sides.

* There were some verrrry odd coaching decisions, starting with Nick Saban's call for a fake punt on the opening drive. I'm all about fake punts, but that deep in your own territory? And asking your punter to throw deep to a covered gunner? Strange. And then there was the backbreaker for Texas: Mack Brown taking a timeout with 30 seconds left in the first half, then calling for a shovel/screen pass that resulted in a devastating interception return for a touchdown that gave Alabama a 24-6 lead. If the Horns had just taken a knee and gone into the half down 17-6, the ending might have been a lot different.

* Alabama should probably spend some time in spring practice on fielding kickoffs. One mix-up is understandable, but there's no excuse for just giving the ball away with excellent field position twice in the national championship game.

* Kirk Herbstreit has some serious jinxing ability. Just as the words "Texas hasn't allowed a sack all night" came out of his mouth, Alabama outside linebacker Eryk Anders came flying around the edge and crushed Gilbert from behind, forcing the game-clinching fumble. I'm sure Texas fans were thrilled.

* Nick Saban must be a miserable person, which is remarkable for a guy who makes $4 million a year and has an awesome job. When defensive lineman Marcell Dareus rumbled into the endzone to complete his spectacular, game-changing interception return late in the first half, Saban was FURIOUS!!! Why? Because Dareus had thrown the ball in celebration, resulting in a meaningless 15-yard penalty. And when the game had been decided and the Gatorade bath came calling, Saban looked like the grumpy old guy who yells at kids to get off his lawn. At this point, I'm not sure he's physically capable of smiling.

* Assuming that Saban doesn't commit suicide or leave for the NFL, Alabama is gonna be an absolute juggernaut for the foreseeable future. The defense will take some hits next year -- the entire starting defensive line (including ginormous nose tackle Terrence Cody) and All-American corner Javier Arenas will be out of eligibility and stud linebacker Rolando McClain is probably headed to the NFL -- but with Saban's track record, I don't expect a huge drop-off. And the offense loses a total of three starters: guard Mike Johnson, right tackle Drew Davis and tight end Colin Peek. McElroy is a junior, Ingram is a sophomore, Richardson is a freshman, Julio Jones is a sophomore, Marquis Maze is a sophomore ... and so on.

* I mentioned this a while back, but it's worth repeating: In two years at Alabama, Saban has brought in a ridiculous 40 four- or five-star recruits, which is 10 more than either USC or Florida has signed in that time. The wave of talent has no end in sight. With the uncertainty of the Urban Meyer situation at Florida and the allegations swirling at USC, 'Bama might have just taken the torch as college football's next dynasty.

The end is near

So here we are. It's the last day of the college football season, which is always depressing (my countdown to Michigan football stands at 240 days). But we've got a few hours left before emo sets in, and the only game left on the schedule should give us plenty to talk about.

We've got Heisman Trophy finalists, the winningest quarterback in college football history, two tradition-laden programs, two elite coaches and a combined 26-0 record. The winner takes home the national championship.

Alabama has been about a four-point favorite since the books opened, which seems about right: After watching 'Bama destroy Florida and Texas squeak past an uninspiring Nebraska team (along with a few other mediocre opponents), setting that line was probably pretty easy. But the "what have you done for me lately" factor is WAY overrated, and it's not like Texas isn't an elite team. Between Colt McCoy and the nation's top rushing defense, the Horns will put up a fight. Will it be enough? Ehhhh ... let's take a look.

What I usually like to do for this type of game is find a comparable opponent (in terms of style) and analyze the results. Unfortunately, that's pretty difficult for this one; Alabama didn't play an offense with many similarities to Texas. The only passing-based offense 'Bama faced was Bobby Petrino's at Arkansas, and that's much more of an aggressive, downfield attack than what we'll see from Texas. I also doubt McCoy will go 12-for-35 like Ryan Mallett did. Auburn had as much success as anyone, but that offense is a wildly complex run-heavy attack. Again, it's not similar to what we'll see from Texas. I'd look at Tennessee, but Jonathan Crompton is closer to a catfish than he is to Colt McCoy.

There's not much to glean from all this, but what I do know is that Texas faced a couple defenses similar to Alabama's (not quite as good, but similar). In one of those games, the Horns put up 16 points against Oklahoma and held on for their biggest win of the year. In the other, Texas' interior O-line was physically destroyed by Ndamukong Suh in the Big 12 title game. Neither one of those performances bodes well against Alabama.

After Suh's get-out-of-my-way-while-I-kill-your-quarterback dominance, it seems likely that Texas' offensive line will have problems with Terrence Cody and Alabama's blitz-heavy defense. While Cody doesn't have Suh's quickness and pass-rushing ability, his 360-pound presence pretty much demands two blockers and will allow just about everyone else in the front seven to focus on getting to McCoy. Alabama finished second in the country in pass-efficiency defense and eighth in passing yards allowed, which is extremely good when you consider that they were winning by a lot in most games. When 'Bama took a 13-point lead over Florida and it became obvious that Tim Tebow would have to throw, the results weren't pretty: Tebow was 10-for-17 with one sack, one interception and no touchdowns in the second half. Only three of those 10 passes went for more than 8 yards.

The reason I'm focusing so much on the passing game is that Texas doesn't really have a running game. Things aren't quite as dire as they were last year, when McCoy easily led the team in rushing, but they aren't much better. McCoy was still the primary option against every respectable defense except Oklahoma (Foswhitt Whitaker broke off a couple nice runs and finished with 71 yards, while McCoy was the second-leading rusher with 33 yards). And after the Nebraska debacle -- McCoy had 17 carries for minus-20 yards as Texas accumulated 18 rushing yards as a team -- I doubt Mack Brown will even bother with having McCoy run into the teeth of the nation's second-ranked rushing defense and get drilled repeatedly by Cody and Rolando McClain. Expect at least 35 passing attempts unless Texas finds shocking success with Whitaker or nominal starting running back Vondrell McGee.

As for McCoy, he was very good this year ... but not great. He finished 17th in pass efficiency -- just ahead of Greg McElroy -- and didn't post the huge numbers he did as a junior, finishing with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. In the two games mentioned above, he was flat-out bad: He was 21-for-39 for 127 yards with one touchdown and one interception against Oklahoma and 20-for-36 for 184 yards with no touchdowns and three picks against Nebraska. Add the two together and you get a cumulative 41-for-75 (54.6%) for 311 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions against the only defenses on the schedule that could be considered even remotely comparable to Alabama's. If he doesn't play far better tonight, Texas has basically no shot at winning.

Alabama, of course, plays a slightly different style. They have a pretty good running back who won some award or something, and they like to give him the ball a lot and let him run around and/or over people on his way to the ... errr, the 10-yard line, at which point Leigh Tiffin will come on and kick a field goal.

I covered this in my Heisman follow-up, but it's worth mentioning again: Mark Ingram was at his best against 'Bama's toughest competition this year.

In Ingram's six most difficult games, his average was 154 yards -- significantly more than his season average -- on 24.3 carries, or an average of 6.38 per carry.

In other words, Ingram's numbers were actually dragged down by games against Florida International, North Texas and Chattanooga; he had a total of 29 carries in those three games. He was by far his best against Alabama's toughest opponents, including 113 yards and three touchdowns in the biggest game this year in all of college football.

As impressive as his performance against Florida was, the going gets tougher against Texas. Let me put it this way: Texas looks at Alabama's run defense and laughs. The Horns have the top-ranked run defense in the country, allowing just 62 yards per game (Alabama is a distant second at 77 yards per game). There's a catch, though: Playing in the spread-happy Big 12 means Texas faced a total of two offenses all year ranked in the top 60 in rushing (Oklahoma State finished 22nd and Texas A&M was 30th), and neither of those two has a power running game similar in style or quality to Alabama's. It'll be uncharted waters for the Texas defense; I expect a good performance, but I don't think the Tide will be held under 100 rushing yards.

And then there's a quarterback, a guy nobody figured was of much use until he took over late to lead 'Bama past Auburn and then lit up Florida like a Christmas tree. How good is Greg McElroy? I have no idea; it depends a lot on whether you're looking at Alabama's first 10 games or the past two. He wasn't bad early in the year, but he wasn't really asked to do anything except not screw up. When Auburn and Florida really focused on stopping Ingram and stud freshman Trent Richardson, McElroy stepped up. I think we can all agree that if McElroy plays like he did against Florida, Alabama will win comfortably.

Texas' pass defense is pretty good -- 10th in pass-efficiency D and 25th in passing yards allowed despite playing Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, etc. -- but if they're playing eight guys in the box on every play, there will be some openings for Julio Jones and Marquise Maze. If you haven't seen Julio Jones this year, please watch him. The guy is a physical freak who will be starting in the NFL a couple years. I think he plays a lot like Larry Fitzgerald, and Texas doesn't have a corner who can defend a young Larry Fitzgerald. Maze is one of those little 5-foot-10 guys with ridiculous shiftiness; he's the perfect complement to Julio Jones and has made plenty of big plays this year while everyone has been smothering Jones and Ingram. I don't think either side has a definite advantage when Alabama puts the ball in the air, but I think there'll be at least one big pass play that gets 'Bama some points.

The odd thing about Alabama's offense is its weakness: The Tide just can't score touchdowns when they get in the red zone. Their touchdown percentage is at 45% this year, which is pretty terrible when compared with Texas' 71%. In a close game, settling for a field goal rather than a touchdown could be the difference.

Special teams are a wash. Leigh Tiffin (29-for-33) and Hunter Lawrence (22-for-25) are two of the best kickers around, as are returners Jordan Shipley and Javier Arenas. Both were All-Americans -- Arenas at corner and Shipley at receiver -- and Arenas is just 29 punt return yards away from Wes Welker's NCAA career record of 1,761 yards. Neither team punts or covers punts particularly well, which will probably come into play in a game that features two of the best defenses in the country; I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a big return from Shipley or Arenas that swings momentum to one side.

I think that covers just about everything, so I'll summarize in tale-of-the-tape fashion:

• Alabama offense vs. Texas defense: Push, although McElroy's late-season surge could give 'Bama a slight edge since Texas' run defense will get its toughest test of the year.
• Texas offense vs. Alabama defense: Advantage 'Bama. The Horns' performances against Nebraska and Oklahoma were deeply concerning.
• Special teams: Push.

Everything tells me this game will be a defensive battle, and I think the Tide have a slightly better defense and a slightly more well-rounded offense. It'd be great to see Colt McCoy go out with a legendary performance in the final game of his legendary career, but without a running game to help him out, Alabama will just find it too easy to sit on Texas' short passing routes (like Oklahoma and Nebraska did) and force him into a lot of sacks/throwaways/dangerous passes. Mack Brown knows this, of course; I'm just not sure what he can do about it. It's hard to envision the Horns' one-dimensional offense putting up more than a couple touchdowns when Nick Saban has had a month to prepare.

My predictions are as follows:

• Ingram runs for at least 80 yards and a touchdown.
• McCoy finishes below 250 yards passing.
• Jones, Maze or Shipley breaks off a long (at least 50-yard) touchdown.
• There are a LOT of punts.
• Alabama wins 20-17.

In other words, bet heavily on Texas in a shootout.

The Big Ten doesn't suck (that bad)

If there's any positive in watching Ohio State win a bowl game (besides this), it's that I finally won't have to hear about how the Big Ten sucks and can't win anything meaningful blah blah blah. When you throw in Iowa's win over Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl, Penn State's win over LSU in the Capital One Bowl and Wisconsin's win over Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl, it was a pretty good week for the Big Ten.

This is what I've been telling people for the last few years: The Big Ten really isn't that bad in bowl games. It seems like the Big Ten has done poorly because Ohio State has shit the bed twice on the biggest stage possible and USC has consistently kicked ass in the Rose Bowl, but the only really bad year for the conference as a whole was 2008-09 (a 1-6 cumulative bowl record). This year, the Big Ten went 4-3. Two years ago, that record was 3-4. The year before that, the overall record was 2-3 ... until Michigan lost to USC and Ohio State got destroyed by Florida. Those are the games people remember.

But for all the talk about SEC dominance, the Big Ten's head-to-head record in bowl games against the SEC over the past six years (since Ohio State won the national title) is 11-11, and the Big Ten's all-time record in BCS games is 10-11; that's hardly a disaster. Every columnist's favorite stat going into this year was that the Big Ten had lost six straight BCS games, but keep in mind that every loss in that time was to USC (three times), Texas (once), Florida (once) or LSU (once).

I don't have a problem acknowledging that Ohio State hasn't been quite as good Florida/LSU/Texas and that Michigan and Penn State haven't been quite as good as USC over the past six years. You could argue that nobody has been as good as those teams, so it's really nothing to be ashamed of.

But when people talk about the Big Ten in bowl games, nobody mentions the regular wins in the Capital One Bowl or the overall record; it's the epic BCS failures that are remembered. This will continue to be the case, of course -- it's just human nature to remember the most important games -- but it sucks that the Big Ten has had so many difficult matchups recently.

And when the conference finally gets a couple favorable matchups (a good but not great Oregon team and a verrrry mediocre Georgia Tech team), the wins will be immediately forgotten for the following reason: Between Tim Tebow's finale in the Sugar Bowl, the battle of unbeatens in the Fiesta Bowl and the this year's Game of the Century between Alabama and Texas, the Big Ten's two big wins have been talked about for a combined 14 seconds this week on ESPN (that's an approximate number). As surely as the conference's recent failures have been overplayed, the long-awaited big wins have been disappointingly overlooked.

I got a bunch of texts this week saying something along the lines of "Hey, at least the Big Ten should get some positive attention for once." It won't, especially if Alabama wins Thursday night; the only thing we'll hear for the next 12 months is that the SEC is the GREATEST CONFERENCE EVA!!!

I just hope that next year, when it comes time to talk about why the Big Ten is so bad in bowl games, people actually look back at this year's results and realize that the conference shouldn't be defined by Ohio State playing really poorly against Florida and LSU a few years ago. Zoom out, please.

Yes, Boise and TCU belonged

I got done watching an exciting and competitive Fiesta Bowl between two very good teams Monday night and assumed that everyone who watched it came away satisfied. I was wrong:

How do I say this nicely? Boise's 17-10 victory against TCU was as exciting as watching someone watch paint dry. The game didn't lay an egg; it laid an omelet.

Ummm ... what? Were we watching the same game? For whatever reason, the national reaction has been "Meh, I guess those teams were overrated." I'm guessing that the basis for this stupidity is that it turned into a bit more of a defensive battle than expected -- both teams were in the top five nationally in scoring offense -- but why does a defensive game equal a bad game? Isn't it possible for two teams with very good defenses (and just to clarify, both were also ranked in the top 15 in scoring defense) to play a very good and low-scoring game?

To answer my own question: Yes. I guarantee that if Texas and Alabama had been playing (and their game might be pretty similar), we'd be hearing none of this. The casual fan, though, assumes that if you aren't a picture of perfection offensively in every nationally televised game, you must not be very good -- you'd never be able to compete in the Big 12 or the SEC.

This is obviously stupid logic. Let me say this as clearly as possible: A team does NOT equal its competition. The fact that the Broncos cruised through the WAC means only that they're better than everyone in the WAC; it says nothing about how good they are compared with the best teams from other conferences. To figure that out, you'd have to look at results, and their results have been pretty good. In the past three years, Boise has beaten Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, Oregon at Autzen Stadium, Oregon again this year and TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. Don't tell me Boise can't compete with the best just because they play in the WAC; they've beaten the best of the best on a regular basis and probably would have gone unbeaten this year in the Pac-10, Big East, ACC and Big Ten. This is a legitimate top-five team that deserves consideration for the national title.

How much consideration? I don't know (and I never will, unfortunately). But personally, I thought the Fiesta Bowl was one of the better BCS games in the past few years. The fact that both teams played so well defensively just showed how well-rounded they are, and the only thing that can really be determined in the aftermath is that Boise and TCU are almost dead even in terms of quality. One big special-teams play by led to the winning score and one big defensive play sealed the victory; other than that, the game was basically played to a draw.

I wouldn't wanna try to separate the top four or five teams on a final ballot, but I have no qualms at all with saying that both Boise and TCU are extremely good and could compete with anyone else in the country, Alabama and Texas included.

The pure excitement of oranges

This will be brief since I've only got a few minutes before kickoff, but I said I'd do a preview for every BCS game and damn it, I'm doing a preview.

The Orange Bowl got the short end of the BCS stick this year, getting probably the two least desirable teams in the mix: Iowa and Georgia Tech. There's nothing sexy or must-see about this one unless you really enjoy the intricacies of the triple option or you happen to be from Iowa.

The obvious intrigue comes from Iowa's defense and whether it can stop the second-ranked rushing attack in the country. For as good as that defense has been this year, the results against quality rushing offenses haven't been very impressive. Here are some numbers:

Iowa State: 190 rushing yards on 34 attempts (5.6 per carry)
Arizona: 148 rushing yards on 25 attempts (5.9 per carry)
Penn State: 109 rushing yards on 33 attempts (3.3 per carry)
Michigan: 195 rushing yards on 45 attempts (4.3 per carry)
Wisconsin: 87 rushing yards on 33 attempts (2.6 per carry)
Ohio State: 229 rushing yards on 51 attempts (4.5 per carry)

You'd expect better from a defense that finished 10th in the country in yards allowed, but Iowa's real strength was its passing D (ninth in yards allowed, fourth in efficiency), and that'll be all but irrelevant against a team that threw 159 passes this year (just over 12 per game) and ran 751 times. I expect the Yellow Jackets to be able to run the ball with some success; between Josh Nesbitt, Jonathan Dwyer and Anthony Allen, I expect a cumulative total of at least 200 yards. I'll be surprised if they don't get within a touchdown of their 35-point-per-game average.

Iowa's offense, on the other hand, is pretty bad. Ricky Stanzi will be back from an ankle injury suffered early in the loss to Northwestern, but it's not like he was tearing it up before he got hurt: 56% passing with 15 touchdowns and 14 picks won't intimidate anybody. I guess Adam Robinson finished with 775 yards on 167 carries, which isn't bad, but when that's the strength of your offense, you have problems.

Fortunately for Iowa, Georgia Tech's defense is equally bad: 66th in rushing defense, 85th in pass efficiency defense, 52nd in yards allowed and 56th in points allowed. It's the resistible force against the movable object. The one (very) bright spot is junior defensive end Derrick Morgan, who has 12 sacks this year and is being projected as a top-10 pick if he decides to leave school. If you like to watch the line of scrimmage, check out the battle between Morgan and all-Big Ten tackle Bryan Bulaga; it'll be crucial when Iowa tries to throw.

The Hawkeyes love to run up the middle repeatedly for about three yards a carry and then use the bootleg to go downfield to Marvin McNutt or tight end Tony Moeaki, and I think that'll be effective against a Tech defense that has a lot of holes in the secondary. Basically, expect a couple big plays and a whole bunch of crappy ones.

I actually think this'll turn out to be a decent game, although there's the possibility of a Georgia Tech blowout if the running game clicks early and Iowa has a turnover or two. Neither team is built to come from behind, but it would be particularly hard for an Iowa team with a weak offense against a Tech team that can not only grind out yardage but accumulate points at a pretty decent rate. But assuming neither team falls apart in epic fashion, I think Georgia Tech's collection of backfield talent will be just a little too much for a punchless Iowa team that could have easily finished 7-4 this year.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 30, Iowa 21.

Fiesta time

There have been four matchups between undefeated teams in the history of the BCS, and all four have been for the national championship. It's a short list:

1999: Florida State (11-0) vs. Virginia Tech (11-0)
2002: Miami (12-0) vs. Ohio State (13-0)
2004: USC (12-0) vs. Oklahoma (12-0)
2005: USC (12-0) vs. Texas (12-0)

There'll be one more game on that list after tonight. I was really hoping Boise State and TCU would each get matched up against major-conference teams -- something like Boise against Alabama and TCU against Florida -- but it is what it is.

As you'd expect, both teams are pretty awesome at just about everything. TCU is fifth in total offense, Boise State is seventh. Boise State is first in scoring offense, TCU is fourth. TCU is first in total defense, Boise State is 14th. TCU is fourth in scoring defense, Boise State is 15th. And so on ...

The usual qualifier here is "grumble grumble schedule strength couldn't do that in the SEC grumble grumble," but that argument doesn't hold much water this year. TCU beat Clemson in nonconference play and then kicked the shit out of BYU and Utah in the Mountain West, which looks pretty good after BYU's waxing of Oregon State and Utah's win over Cal. Boise physically dominated Oregon in the season opener and wasn't seriously challenged the rest of the year. It's true that nobody in the WAC was particularly good this year, but the Broncos did what they were supposed to do and destroyed just about all of those mediocre teams; after Oregon, the only close game was a seven-point win over Tulsa in October.

So both have faced and beaten good teams; the thing I question is whether Boise has faced a defense comparable to TCU's. Oregon's is solid, but everyone else on the schedule ... um, not so much. There's been nothing this season that has prepared Boise for a defense ranked in the top five nationally in every statistical category TCU obviously hasn't faced the highest-scoring offense in the country, but Clemson, BYU and Utah were all in the top 34 in scoring, and TCU held those three teams to an average of 15 points. We're not talking about Cincinnati. Boise will probably also be playing without injured receiver Austin Pettis, and while his absence didn't hurt in the last two games of the regular season, he'll be missed against a team with a legitimate defense.

Speaking of legitimate, don't sell TCU's offense short: As noted above, the offense has actually been just as good as the defense (and just as good as Boise's offense, which I never would have guessed). Even if you go beyond the scoring numbers, TCU is fifth in rushing offense, third in pass efficiency, fifth in total yardage, fourth in fewest sacks allowed, etc. There's nothing really spectacular about Andy Dalton or Jeremy Turner, but everything just seems to work (having an uber-athlete like receiver/returner Jeremy Kerley helps).

The big question -- and the thing that's really hard to know -- is whether Boise's shutdown effort against Oregon said more about Boise's defense or Oregon's sloppiness. If the Broncos' defense is really that good, this will be a hell of a game. If not -- and if TCU is able to move the ball with consistency -- then I think there's a chance the Frogs will pull away. It'll be asking a lot of Boise's offensive line to hold off all-everything defensive end Jerry Hughes and give Kellen Moore enough time to throw on every down, which is what will need to happen if TCU is scoring much. I will say that if things get desperate, Chris Petersen isn't a bad guy to have calling plays -- he also has a pretty good history in the Fiesta Bowl.

I like both teams a lot, but I'm not sure TCU has a weakness; the Frogs are just really good, and they can match up with almost anybody in any area. All things considered, the spread in Vegas (TCU by 7 1/2) seems just about right in this one. Prediction: TCU 28, Boise 20.

Going out in style

We all knew Cincinnati's defense wasn't very good and that Florida would probably have its way on the ground in the Sugar Bowl, but holy crap. Tim Tebow did anything he wanted Friday night, and it showed on the stat sheet: He finished 31-for-35 for 482 yards (!!!) with three touchdowns and no interceptions, and he tacked on 51 rushing yards and a TD just for good measure. Not a bad way to wrap up one of the greatest careers ever.

Those 531 total yards were the most in BCS history, which is pretty impressive when you consider that the previous record was held by Vince Young, who put up 467 in his epic performance against USC. Was Tebow's Sugar Bowl better than Young's Rose Bowl? No. The situations and opposing defenses weren't exactly comparable. But to anyone who questions whether Tebow can throw -- and yes, I know his motion isn't pretty -- just go back and watch him shred the third-ranked team in the country. He's pretty good.

I'm not sure it mattered that Brian Kelly wasn't on the sidelines; if Cincinnati had scored 40 points, Florida could have scored 70. It was clear from the opening drive that it was gonna be rough for the Cincy defense. Tebow completed his first 12 passes and Florida scored on its first five possessions, and it was 30-3 by the time anyone realized what was happening.

I said this the day before the game ...

I don't think it'll be the complete massacre a lot of people are predicting, but Florida is just a terrible opponent for Cincy to get matched up against.

... and I was right about the matchup part. But while Cincinnati battled back in the fourth quarter and made the final score moderately respectable at 51-24, it was a massacre by BCS standards.

It was a fittingly dominant performance in Tebow's final career game. I have no idea if he's the greatest college quarterback ever -- I won't bother trying to compare him with Tommie Frazier or Matt Leinart or Sammy Baugh or Roger Staubach (different eras, styles, etc.) -- but he certainly belongs in the discussion.

As for Urban Meyer, let the speculation begin. He recently told running back commit Mack Brown that he hopes to be back in August, which is basically the same thing he said at the Sugar Bowl press conference, but nobody knows for sure what the future holds. He reportedly looked terrible at the postgame media session and sounded less than certain about a his long-term plans.

If this was his last game, it was a great way to go out. Another dominating win over an elite team is an accurate in-a-nutshell summation of the Tebow-Meyer era; you can't do much better than three 13-win seasons, three BCS bowl victories and two national titles in four years.