The mystery of the Little Brown Jug

There's only one reason Michigan-Minnesota is any more of a rivalry than, say, Michigan-Wisconsin or Michigan-Indiana (which aren't really rivalries at all): the Little Brown Jug.

Some background: The jug was left behind by Michigan after a 6-6 tie at Minnesota in 1903, and when UM coach Fielding Yost wrote to request its return, he was told that Michigan would "have to win it." They did so six years later, starting a rivalry that still exists today. The unusual thing is that there's no particular animosity or regional tension between the two schools -- the rivalry exists because of the jug, not the other way around.

When Greg at MVictors started putting together a mini-series on the history of the jug, he ran into an unexpected question: Is the jug in use today the same one that was left behind in 1903? According to Lloyd Carr and UM spokesman Bruce Madej, no. According to longtime Michigan equipment manager Jon Falk, yes. I honestly didn't know there was much of a debate; the thing looks old, and it seems like there'd be a great story behind its loss/destruction/replacement if the original was no longer around (although if it was replaced in like 1937, who would ever know the difference?)

But Greg wasn't willing to settle for the old "I guess we'll never know" conclusion, instead embarking on a mission that led him from UM's Bentley Library to the Henry Ford Museum in Dearborn and back to Schembechler Hall for a MysteryQuest-style investigation. I'm talking about serious research here -- the Internet is full of crap, but if there was a Pulitzer Prize for sports trophy investigations, this would win.

So ... has the jug pictured above been around since 1903? Read the story and find out.

Who's it gonna be?

USC at Oregon. It's the only game this week with national title implications (barring a major upset somewhere else, of course), and it's the game everyone will be watching ... unless you're like me and have kids, in which case you'll be walking around in some random neighborhood looking for candy while trying to get quarterly updates on your iPhone or cellular device of choice. Thank God for technology.

Anyway, there's a lot at stake in this one: Whichever team wins will have a clear path to the Pac-10 title and the Rose Bowl (possibly more if USC wins and gets some help). Arizona also has only one loss in conference play, but let's take them seriously for about five seconds and look at their schedule. After hosting Washington State this week, UA plays at Cal, Oregon, at Arizona State and at USC. Moving on ...

I said at the beginning of the year that Oregon would finish with at least a share of the Pac-10 title, and while I was strongly reconsidering that after the ugly loss to Boise, a win Saturday would make that a reality. I'm not one of those people who's too stubborn to reconsider an opinion that's obviously wrong, but I've been feeling better and better about that pick every week, and here's why:

9/19	No. 18 Utah	2-1 (0-0)	W 31-24
9/26	No. 6 California	3-1 (1-0)	W 42-3
10/03	Washington State	4-1 (2-0)	W 52-6
10/10	@ UCLA	5-1 (3-0)	W 24-10
10/24	@ Washington	6-1 (4-0)	W 43-19

That's impressive, and keep in mind that QB Jeremiah Masoli missed the UCLA game with a knee injury. It's interesting to note that Oregon went to Seattle and beat Washington (the team that beat USC) by 24, but the game that's actually more relevant to this week's matchup is the one against Cal.

While Matt Barkley's numbers have gotten incrementally better throughout the season, USC's offense is still primarily ground-based. That'll need to continue against Oregon, because Barkley will find out quickly that Autzen isn't exactly Notre Dame Stadium -- just ask Mark Sanchez. He stepped in for an injured John David Booty in 2007 and was a respectable 26-for-41, but his two interceptions were the difference in a 24-17 Oregon win.

That's where Cal comes in. Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford are both very good, but Jahvid Best is by far the best (no pun intended) running back in the country, and Oregon absolutely shut him down in a 42-3 ass-whoopin' of a good Bears team four weeks ago. People don't usually look at Oregon as a stout defensive team, but don't sell them short this year: They're sixth in pass efficiency defense, 41st in rushing defense, 19th in scoring defense and 19th in total defense. I don't know if the Ducks can do to McKnight and Bradford what they did to Best-- USC's offensive line and receiving corps will have something to say about that -- but if the Trojans end up with less than 150 yards on the ground, Oregon wins (probably comfortably).

The other thing that scares me about USC is, surprisingly, the defense. I'm aware that the rush defense is fifth in the country and that Oregon needs to run the ball just as badly as USC does, but watching Oregon State put up 176 rushing yards last week (sacks not included) while throwing for 329 -- this after Notre Dame had 86 rushing yards and 265 through the air (fake field goal not included) -- makes me wonder if the last two weeks are more indicative of USC's defense than the first five. For that matter, even if the Trojans really do have one of the best defenses in the country, will they be able to stop an offense that's put up over 38 points per game since the season-opening loss? I'm not so sure.

I don't think I've picked against USC at any point in the last six years, but I just don't like how this one sets up for the Trojans. Oregon's offense has been firing on all cylinders just as USC's defense has been coming back down to Earth, and I can still picture Jahvid Best being swarmed under by about six Oregon defenders (probably because I watched it happen for three straight hours). When you throw in the fact that Autzen is an absolute nightmare for opposing quarterbacks -- and that USC's is a freshman -- all the signs point to the Ducks getting their biggest win in ... well, maybe ever.

Prediction: Oregon 30, USC 24.

Catching up: Decimation in the Big Ten

* Minnesota receiver Eric Decker, pretty much the lone bright spot in a dismal offensive year for the Gophers, is out for the season with a sprained foot. Minnesota has been downright awful when Decker has missed time each of the last two seasons, mostly because there's nobody else worth much of anything on that side of the ball. Adam Weber is a better QB than his numbers this year have indicated, but he just has no help, especially with Decker out of the picture. The future might be now for athletic freshman QB MarQueis Gray, who ran for 51 yards and a touchdown against Ohio State last week and might be able to provide at least some semblance of a running game for the team that used to churn out 1,000-yard backs with regularity.

* Iowa will be without running back Adam Robinson for the remainder of the year due to a high ankle sprain. Robinson had been splitting carries with freshman Brandon Wegher earlier in the year but had been getting a larger chunk of the carries each week, putting up 91 yards against Wisconsin and 109 against Michigan State. Wegher will now assume the starting duties, and after that ... well, hopefully Wegher produces. Spectacularly named walk-on Paki O'Meara is next on the depth chart (although anyone who's watched him knows he's not a viable option), and after that is 5-foot-8, 230-pound (!!!) freshman Brad Rogers. Yikes. It should also be mentioned that starting guard Dace Richardson will miss the rest of the year with a broken leg, although the offensive line is one area at which the Hawkeyes have the depth to survive that type of injury. Losing Robinson AND Richardson definitely hurts, but let's face it: Iowa's offense has been of little relevance all year and will probably remain that way as long as the defense continues to destroy quarterbacks. The margin for error, though, is slimmer than ever.

* I mentioned this briefly in my earlier post on Michigan-Penn State, but UM center David Molk is out for the year with a torn ACL. The offensive line will likely re-assume its arrangement from when Molk was out with a broken foot: Right guard David Moosman will slide to center, right tackle Mark Huyge will slide to guard and backup Perry Dorrestein will start at right tackle. Molk is good, but Michigan had been playing without him for the previous month anyway and shouldn't suffer a severe drop-off (at least not in the running game). Pass protection will continue to be a problem.

* Michigan also dismissed sophomore cornerback Boubacar Cissoko, a former top recruit whose play never justified the hype. He had been passed on the depth chart by unknown backup J.T. Floyd, and the coaches were so desperate to keep him off the field that they moved free safety Troy Woolfolk to corner (his original position), making walk-on freshman safety Jordan Kovacs a starter by default. Cissoko apparently was having academic problems and wasn't attending practice regularly, which is pretty much a sure-fire way to find yourself looking for a new school.

* Not to be outdone, Michigan State running backs Caulton Ray (the starter at the beginning of the year) and Andre Anderson have been "removed" from the roster. It's unclear exactly why they were dismissed, but the impact on the offense should be minimal: The two have combined for a total of 13 carries in the last six games as freshmen Larry Caper and Edwin Baker and sophomore/convicted felon Glenn Winston have taken over a majority of the rushing attack.

* Texas Tech will start redshirt freshman Seth Doege at quarterback Saturday, according to ESPN. Doege replaces junior Taylor Potts, whose time as starter is probably over; he was hurt during a sloppy win over New Mexico and was quickly surpassed on the depth chart by redshirt junior (and former walk-on) Steven Sheffield, who threw for roughly 8,000 yards and 46 touchdowns against Kansas State and then led the Raiders to an upset of Nebraska before injuring his foot late in the game. Potts didn't exactly seize the opportunity to regain the job last week, throwing two interceptions and fumbling once in a 22-point loss to Texas A&M. Doege will get his shot this week, but Sheffield will likely regain the starting role as soon as he's healthy (probably one more week).

* Losing apparently has no effect whatsoever on Lane Kiffin's cockiness. The Charleston (S.C.) Post and Courier is reporting that when the coaches met at midfield Saturday for a handshake/verbal war after Alabama escaped with a 12-10 win over Tennessee by blocking a last-second field-goal attempt, Kiffin told Nick Saban, "We'll get you next year." He wasn't joking, and Saban wasn't amused ... and with that, Kiffin's quest to personally piss off every coach in the SEC is complete. At least Nick Saban doesn't hold a grudge or anything, right?

Bryant done for the season (and probably forever)

* Oklahoma State receiver Dez Bryant, already suspended by the NCAA for lying to the NCAA about the details of a meeting with Deion Sanders, won't be allowed back this season:

Dez Bryant will remain suspended for the remainder of the football season for lying to NCAA investigators. The NCAA ruled Tuesday that the junior All-American will not be eligible to play until September 2010, possibly bringing his college career to an end if he enters the NFL draft.

Is the NCAA going overboard on this one? Probably. But the more I've thought about it, the more I've realized that there's nobody to blame but Bryant. There have been conflicting reports since the beginning as to whether Sanders' former agent, Eugene Parker, was present at the meeting, and if Bryant refused to tell the truth about what happened, what choice did the NCAA have except to assume that something unethical happened? On top of that, if Bryant thought meeting with Sanders would violate an NCAA rule (which he admitted) and he did it anyway, that's not much better than actually breaking a rule. "It's the thought that counts," as your parents always used to tell you on Christmas after you opened a hideous sweater you'd never, ever wear.

Bryant's only a junior, but a source told ESPN that "if he were unable to regain eligibility to play sometime this season, he would enter the NFL draft." In other words, his college career is over. It's too bad it had to come to this point, because we got a total of three games this year from the best receiver in the country -- and we won't get a senior year at all.

The only positive for Oklahoma State is that the offense has had plenty of time to adjust to Bryant's absence, but that probably won't make much of a difference this weekend against Texas. I still think 10-2 is within reach (Oklahoma has plenty of its own problems), but those hopes rest solely on Zac Robinson's shoulders now.

Simply awful

There are terrible offensive performances and then there are TERRIBLE offensive performances, and there's no question that Nebraska's 9-7 loss to Iowa State on Saturday falls into the latter category. It's not that the Huskers couldn't move the ball -- 362 total yards is a fairly average performance -- but when you turn it over a whopping EIGHT times, nothing else matters.

Five fumbles. Three interceptions. Four turnovers inside the Iowa State 5-yard line, including a fumble by Niles Paul that slipped out of his hand as he was cruising into the endzone untouched (one of three turnovers that came after a completed pass). Nebraska had turned the ball over six times all year coming into the game, and that number more than doubled in one afternoon.

I don't know what else to say without digging into my thesaurus to find synonyms for "inexplicable," so just watch the video and be glad your team didn't lose the same way (unless you're a Huskers fan, in which case you should be avoiding all football-related material for at least five more days):

I guess I should have seen that coming

At the beginning of the year, I predicted Michigan would finish 7-5. I adjusted that to 8-4 after the Notre Dame game, but even as the team's weaknesses became more and more apparent, my heart forced me to stay optimistic and hold onto those ridiculous fantasies that involved UM beating Penn State, getting on a roll, knocking off Ohio State and finishing 10-2.

I wrote off some of the inconsistency as growing pains and felt pretty good about the only two losses -- both of which came on the road in games Michigan had a chance to win in the final minute -- but in hindsight, I should have foreseen the possibility of a disaster like Saturday's 35-10 loss to Penn State. The offense is explosive but is still prone to a ton of mistakes, and the defense just lacks talent at too many positions (especially in the secondary) and is in its first year under coordinator Greg Robinson. That's not exactly a recipe for a national title.

That said, my predictions for Michigan on Saturday really weren't that far off (although the QBs definitely played like freshmen); Penn State was just WAY better than I anticipated, and it looked as though they'd been prepping for weeks for Michigan's defense. They exploited UM's biggest weak spot -- the outside linebackers' and safeties' complete ineptitude in coverage -- early and often, running essentially the same play (known as the "smash" concept) for the first three touchdowns and several other big gains before finally going against that tendency and mixing in a post pattern that got Graham Zug his third score of the day. I never thought I'd say this, but Galen Hall's gameplan was a thing of beauty. Daryll Clark looked like the guy who was Big Ten offensive player of the year in 2008, and while Michigan's coverage has been spotty all season, it's clear now that Clark's horrific outing against Iowa had a lot more to do with the awesomeness of the Hawkeyes' pass defense than anything else.

Michigan ran the ball with decent success (even without excellent center David Molk, who tore his ACL on the third freakin' play after returning from a broken foot), but the passing game was an all-out disaster. Don't put too much blame on Tate Forcier, though: I counted at least four costly drops (and that was before the fourth quarter, when I basically stopped paying attention), and pass protection was a problem all day. Denard Robinson also threw a terrible interception when Michigan was down by three in the second quarter and then fumbled deep in UM territory in the third, and between those two turnovers, the shoddy defense and a safety on a bad snap (which came shortly after Molk departed), it went from a close game to a laugher in a hurry.

It was a painful reminder of 2008, but I wouldn't really call it a regression; it was more of a verification that a lot of last year's youth-related problems -- fumbles, dropped passes, lack of depth at certain spots, inexperience, miscommunication, etc. -- still exist. Unfortunately, they all cropped in one game against the best team Michigan has played all year, and the results weren't pretty.

The UM fan base has had one of its typical overreactions (as all fan bases do), but I hope people realize that a 5-3 team -- one that's literally two plays away from being 7-1 and will likely be 7-3 after playing Illinois and Purdue -- is still a vast improvement from a year ago. We all got suckered into the idea that Penn State was overrated and Michigan was on the brink of greatness, but that doesn't mean we need to ignore the results on the field and react like we would if those things were actually true.

I still expect Michigan to win the next two games (although I'm a little less certain of that than I was a month ago), and I expect them to lose at Wisconsin and at home against Ohio State (although I'm actually more optimistic about the OSU game than I was a month ago). The result would be the 7-5 record I predicted in August, which is a little bit of a comedown from earlier in the year but is perfectly acceptable in the grand scheme of things. It's just not realistic to go from 3-9 to 10-2, and Penn State drilled that into my head with authoritah.

So long, Sam

No more speculation:

Sam Bradford will have season-ending shoulder surgery and expects to enter the NFL draft in April.

I can't say I'm surprised (I basically predicted this last week), but I'm a little disappointed. I was hoping Bradford's desire to have one more shot at a national title would bring him back to Oklahoma for his senior year, but alas.

This isn't all bad for Bob Stoops and the Sooners, though. The offense can no longer sit around wondering when Bradford will come back and rescue them, and the coaching staff can move forward knowing that Landry Jones -- a pretty talented QB -- will be the starter for the next three seasons. Ryan Broyles is having a breakout year as a freshman, DeMarco Murray is only a junior and the offensive line will return mostly intact (Trent Williams is a big loss, but the line as a whole should be fine).

The defense will actually be a little bit more of a rebuilding project after losing Ryan Reynolds, Auston English, Keenan Clayton and Gerald McCoy (a junior who's almost certain to leave as a consensus top-10 pick), but there's plenty of talent on that side of the ball, too. Assuming a reasonable amount of development from Jones over the next five weeks, this team still should be ranked in the preseason top 15 and get about even odds (along with Colt McCoy-less Texas) to win the Big 12 South.

As for Bradford, I'm no doctor, but I can't believe that a sprained joint (and a re-aggravation of an earlier injury) would be enough to remove him from the top of most teams' draft boards. I heard Todd McShay of ESPN say earlier today that the injury would "definitely drop him out of the top 10," to which I say: "Whhaaaaat???"

The only QB in the same stratosphere in terms of talent is Jimmy Clausen (assuming he enters the draft as a junior), and while he's having an outstanding season, I wouldn't take him ahead of Bradford. The difference in accuracy is just a little too much to ignore.

And has McShay actually watched a draft in the last 20 years? Quarterbacks are ALWAYS picked ahead of comparable players at other positions because of their cost/value and their potential impact on a team. With teams like Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Tennessee and Washington in horrific condition and in desperate need of a quarterback, you're telling me all those teams (and about six more) are gonna pass on Sam freakin' Bradford? That seems hard to believe when you're talking about a guy who has been compared to some of the all-time greats and really just needs to learn how to take a hit.