Fact-checking the fact-checker

One of my favorite features in the blogosphere is Dr. Saturday's "Fact-checking," which provides detailed statistical analysis in an attempt to verify some of sportswriters' and fans' favorite memes.

The doc took on the so-called "Rodriguez Leap" last week, with an emphasis on determining whether or not Michigan fans can realistically expect a significant step forward in RichRod's second year (or, more accurately, if his teams have done so in the past or if it's simply a myth).

The verdict:

Those numbers speak for themselves -- the second-year leap is real. Dr. Saturday does, however, provide one caveat:

Unlike any of his previous stays, Rodriguez isn't returning a potentially dynamic quarterback. Tate Forcier, in fact, is not only unlikely to resemble Shaun King or Woody Dantzler as a true freshman, he isn't even a lock to finish the season as functional starter.

Rodriguez might not return a dynamic quarterback, but if you watched Michigan's spring game, you know he's got one.

His point is accurate in one regard: You never know about freshman quarterbacks, even ones as prepared as Forcier. But that got me wondering just how good (and experienced) Shaun King, Woody Dantzler and Rasheed Marshall were in their respective schools' breakout seasons -- and, on a related note, if it's unrealistic to expect something similar from Forcier.

Let's take a look:

* King started as a junior in 1997 and put up solid numbers (54% completion, 24 touchdowns, 14 interceptions) before breaking out big-time and setting the NCAA pass efficiency record in Tulane's undefeated 1998 season. People often don't realize that Tulane's offense was extremely pass-heavy; it was at Clemson that the "spread 'n' shred" was implemented.
* Dantzler saw spot duty prior to 1999, when he rotated with Brandon Streeter as a redshirt sophomore and established himself as the starter heading into 2000. Dantzler was far more of a running threat than King, finishing with 588 rushing yards and a respectable 131.8 pass efficiency in '99 while getting about half the snaps. In 2000, the ground game REALLY took off, as Clemson's offensive numbers exploded despite Dantzler's pass efficiency remaining relatively static at 134.5.
* Marshall was a first-year starter as a redshirt sophomore in 2002 after seeing a handful of snaps in mop-up duty the previous year. He took over for Brad Lewis, a pocket passer who rushed for a whopping 41 yards in Rodriguez's ugly first season in Morgantown. Marshall didn't exactly tear it up in '02 (53.7% completion, nine touchdowns, five interceptions and 666 rushing yards), but combined with running back Avon Cobourne, a third-year starter, the offense was an entirely different animal.

Summary: None of the three quarterbacks had more than a year of starting experience heading into his team's breakout season (Marshall didn't have any), and only King put up numbers that would be extremely difficult to duplicate -- and I think it's safe to say that Michigan won't be putting the ball in the air 364 times this season, as Tulane did in '98.

More importantly, read that note on Marshall again. He was a dual-threat, first-year starter taking over for a pocket passer after a disastrous season in which the team struggled to do anything on offense (other than turn the ball over). When paired with a talented, experienced running back, he put up respectable passing numbers and did enough on the ground to lead the team to an 8-3 record.

Everything in that sentence -- up until the final record, anyway -- would accurately fit Michigan heading into this season. There were so many times last year when the mere threat of a running quarterback would have opened up a huge play -- either via the QB keeping the ball on a zone-read fake or the running back having a huge hole because the weakside defensive end and linebacker wouldn't have been able to crash into the line -- that I can guarantee a significant improvement in Michigan's offensive numbers this season, regardless of the quality of Forcier's passing. And based on what I saw in the spring game, I'll be a bit surprised if Forcier's passing numbers don't exceed both Marshall's and Dantzler's.

Am I expecting 8-3 (or 9-3)? Well ... I'm not so sure. The schedule is far easier than last year, but even with Penn State and Ohio State at home, those are almost certainly losses. And expecting a team that's still VERY young to go 9-1 over the remainder of the schedule is probably unrealistic.

But do I expect significant improvement and bowl eligibility? Absolutely. And if Forcier is able to perform like his predecessors did in RichRod's second year at each stop -- which isn't out of the realm of possibility -- it would be such a remarkable improvement from last season's QB play that an Alabama-like turnaround isn't out of the question.

A merciful end

Thankfully, the Greg Paulus-to-Michigan saga appears to be over. According to Scout, Michigan is no longer in pursuit.

Sources indicated late Friday afternoon that the Michigan football program is no longer exploring the possibility of adding former Duke PG Greg Paulus to its fall roster.

I've already written way more than intended about the potential transfer of a guy who hasn't played football since high school, but one final summary: Paulus would have been nice for depth purposes as a backup to Tate Forcier, but the accompanying media frenzy was completely out of control and might have been an overall detriment to the team. It wasn't worth it for a guy who would have been competing with walk-on Nick Sheridan for the backup job, and I'm thankful it's over.

Now let us never speak of this again.

Spring fever (the good kind)

Spring football is a lot like spring training -- it's great to finally get a look at everyone in uniform, but the results don't mean a whole hell of a lot.

That said, it's all we've got until fall, so let's take a look around at some notable situations and see where things stand.

* While most of the talk regarding the USC quarterback battle has revolved around Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain and stud freshman Matt Barkley, the man working exclusively with the first team in the Trojans' spring game was sophomore Aaron Corp. And while Mustain and Barkley both struggled, Corp finished a solid 8-for-13 for 70 yards. Unless Pete Carroll's comments AND actions are to be considered a smokescreen, it appears that the little-known Corp will be running the show. As for the linebacking corps ... well, it'll be inexperienced. Chris Galippo, supposedly the next big thing in the middle, is out for the spring with mono but is still expected to start between former backups Michael Morgan and Malcolm Smith.

* It would be safe to assume that Texas Tech's defense will have to improve this season for the Red Raiders to come close to duplicating last year's success, considering that both Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree have departed. That's going to be just a bit more difficult, though, with the news that defensive end McKinner Dixon, who led the team with nine sacks last season, has been suspended indefinitely for his academic performance. This is nothing new for Dixon, who flunked out of school during his freshman year in 2005 only to return after a year at a community college, but Mike Leach apparently decided that he'd seen enough. He didn't completely close the door on a possible return, but it doesn't appear likely.

* Arizona State freshman Jack Elway (yes, that one) has decided to quit football but will continue his academic career at ASU. Elway was involved in a five-way battle to replace Rudy Carpenter this spring, but was considered a longshot to beat out last year's backup, Danny Sullivan. It appears that Sullivan has a fairly firm grasp on the starting job heading into the sun Devils' spring game this weekend.

* I briefly mentioned this in my post(s) on Greg Paulus, but Tate Forcier put on a show in Michigan's spring game by going 11-of-14 with four passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown and no interceptions. Barring an injury or some other unexpected development, Forcier will start the Wolverines' opener against Western Michigan.

* No one thought it'd be easy for Georgia to replace both Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno in the backfield, but the offensive performance in the Bulldogs' spring game still couldn't have been what fans were hoping for. Joe Cox struggled but is still the front-runner to start at QB in the fall, while Moreno's heir apparent, Caleb King, is competing with microscopic redshirt freshman Carlton Thomas and sophomore Richard Samuel (currently out with a wrist injury). Mark Richt said he expects that battle to last into the season.

* Freshman QB Russell Shepard has been unstoppable on the ground in LSU's spring practices, but sophomore Jordan Jefferson still has a firm grasp on the starting job. Les Miles has also been giving Shepard snaps at receiver in an effort to get him on the field, but it's unclear whether he'll play there regularly if he doesn't beat out Jefferson.

* Alabama has some serious rebuilding to do on offense, but junior Greg McElroy is solidifying at least one spot by running away from dual-threat freshman Star Jackson in the QB competition. Sophomore Mark Ingram looks have a slight lead on Terry Grant and Roy Upchurch at running back, but five-star recruit Trent Richardson could change things quickly when he arrives in the fall. The offensive line is still a work in progress, with several players trying out at various spots in an attempt to fill three vacated positions. Regardless of how many five-star recruits Nick Saban has compiled, it's gonna take some time for the Tide offense to jell.

* Ohio State running back Boom Herron (nickname required in order to replace Beanie Wells), who filled in last year while Wells was injured, appears likely to start while sharing carries with speedster Brandon Saine. With the way the Buckeyes' offense struggled last year in Wells' absence -- and with the loss of top receivers Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline -- Terrelle Pryor will have to carry an extremely heavy load for OSU to make a run at another national title game.

* Florida's spring scrimmage has essentially turned into a JV game, as the Gators are holding out numerous starters -- including defensive end Carlos Dunlap, running back Emmanuel Moody and linemen Maurkice and Mike Pouncey -- with injuries. Nothing appears too serious, and for a team that will almost certainly open the season at No. 1 in both polls, there's little reason to risk further damage.

One more thing

As the rumors continue to swirl about Greg Paulus and his potential transfer to Michigan, I'd like to add (or clarify) one thing.

Paulus was at one time an excellent recruit, but for a guy who was a mediocre college basketball player and has never played a down of college football, the media attention this story has gotten -- from ESPN, in particular -- is completely out of whack. This is what happens when the self-proclaimed Worldwide Leader gets ahold of a story that combines two of the biggest fan bases in sports: Duke basketball and Michigan football.

Even if Paulus does decide to enroll at Michigan -- which hasn't yet been decided (it's unclear whether he's even been offered a scholarship) -- the chances of him seeing significant playing time are remote. Early enrollee Tate Forcier appears to have the starting job locked up, and the rust that Paulus would have to shake off seems like it would be prohibitive for someone hoping to step onto the field at the highest level of college football.

I'd still like to have him at UM, as the alternatives behind Forcier are less than thrilling, but the talk of competing for a starting job is unrealistic hype that isn't helping anything.

With Forcier getting a little defensive about his status as starter and douchebag journalists such as Woody Paige using this is another opportunity to kick Michigan while it's down, this has grown into something WAY bigger than it was ever intended to be -- Rich Rodriguez looking to add some depth by picking up a talented athlete for one year.

Back to reality

A story Sunday in the Chicago Tribune stated that Charlie Weis considered leaving Notre Dame at the end of last season -- voluntarily. This seemed a bit stunning at first glance, but Weis' quotes seemed to back up that assertion:

"We talked about all that as a family, and we felt that we didn't want to leave that way," Weis said. "That would have been the easy way out. That's not why we came here."

On Wednesday, though, Weis clarified his statements and told the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette that the discussion wasn't so much about leaving as it was about having a backup plan in the event that he lose his job following another embarrassing loss to USC. The quotes are a bit rambly, but it appears that Weis was had no intention of leaving voluntarily.

The supposed reasoning for the family discussion was that Weis was concerned for his teenage son's well-being as the Irish continued to struggle, but let's be realistic here. Despite all its troubles in the last three years, Notre Dame is still the cream of the crop in terms of college football coaching jobs, and for a guy whose ego is as big as his appetite, there's no way Weis would step aside without being forced to.

As noted by Notre Dame blog UHND, what should be taken from the Tribune's story is not that Weis was planning on leaving, but that he was actually so close to being fired that he was discussing his future career options with his family. If there was any question as to how short a leash Weis is on -- nine wins seems to be the absolute minimum this year -- his statements should clear things up.

Out of nowhere

It's been reported by multiple outlets in the past few days that Duke point guard Greg Paulus, who was a high school All-American and a highly touted recruit as a quarterback out of New York in 2004, visited Michigan and met with Rich Rodriguez this week regarding a possible transfer to resume his football career.

Let's go over some facts here:

• Paulus had offers from a large majority of the top schools in the country coming out of high school.
• While considered an excellent athlete (obviously, given his basketball abilities), Paulus played in a spread passing offense in high school and still holds the state record for passing yards.
• He hasn't played football since arriving at Duke in 2005.
• Due to the NCAA's five-year eligibility clock, Paulus has one year remaining (at any school) if he chooses to play football.
• After expressing interest in playing under David Cutcliffe at Duke, Paulus was informed that he would not be considered as an option at QB but could try out for the team as a receiver.

Paulus obviously was considered an excellent prospect at one point, but with several years of rust and only one season remaining, his upside is pretty minimal. However, there are two reasons that I think it's wise for Michigan to consider bringing Paulus in:

1. If his physical abilities are considered so impressive that he was brought in for a workout by the Green Bay Packers despite having never played a down of college football, that puts him ahead of every quarterback on Michigan's roster in terms of pure talent (with the possible exception of freshman Tate Forcier).
2. After Forcier, who put up four touchdowns in the spring game and erased any doubts about his claim to the starting job, the depth chart is ugly. Walk-on Nick Sheridan -- whose performance last year was so horrific that he earned the nickname "Death" at Mgoblog -- is the presumptive backup, while freshman Denard Robinson, who won't arrive until fall, will likely be mixed in as part of some run packages.

Regardless of whether Paulus is the same player who was named Gatorade's national player of the year in 2004, his arrival would be welcome if for no other reason than depth. If Forcier falls far short of expectations or (knock on wood) is injured, it'd be nice to have a backup QB with reasonable athleticism AND the ability to complete a forward pass, and Paulus appears to fit that description.

Dodging a bullet

My sabbatical is over. My second child -- a little girl -- was born last Tuesday night, so my life has been a little hectic. But now that things are settling down, it's time to catch up with the world. I haven't missed much (that's the one positive of an eight-month offseason), but one particular event jumped out at me.

Three more Iowa players were arrested last week and charged with public intoxication, including backup center James Ferentz. As you've probably surmised by his last name, his dad is coach Kirk Ferentz. The arrest itself isn't much of a surprise given the state of the Iowa program -- I've lost track of the number of disciplinary issues the last few years -- but the name itself should tell you something (and the blood alcohol levels were phenomenal in their own right).

I tend to believe that coaches get too much of the credit and too much of the blame when it comes to off-the-field trouble -- players will do what they want, and unless you avoid anyone with even the slightest character concerns (which is pretty much impossible), you're going to run into the occasional problem. That said, the Iowa situation has gotten somewhat out of control, and Ferentz has to shoulder at least some of the blame (especially considering the cover-up accusations that came out after the sexual assault allegations against two Iowa players in 2007).

A little background: About 16 months ago, it became known that Michigan was searching for a head coach after the retirement of Lloyd Carr. While this detail never really became public (at least not that I'm aware of), several insiders with knowledge of the coaching search reported that the first person contacted about the job was Kirk Ferentz. Ferentz has never been exciting, but he's always done a little more than he rightfully should at a place with minimal recruiting draw, and he's been compensated heavily for that.

But fans who got wind of the school's run at Ferentz were irate, mostly for two reasons:

1) Ferentz's offense made Lloyd Carr look like Mike Leach.
2) Iowa's off-the-field issues have become a running joke around the country.

It should be noted that this was the second alcohol-related arrest for James Ferentz, who is ... um, 19 years old. Everyone thinks Kirk Ferentz is a good coach (or the BEST COACH EVER!!! if you're Tom Deinhart of The Sporting News), but his stock has plummeted because his team has turned into this decade's version of the Criminoles while failing to even approach the three straight 10-win seasons it put together from 2002-04.

When I first heard that he was being targeted as Carr's successor at UM, it seemed to make sense, even if it wasn't a sexy pick; Ferentz exudes authority and has been targeted by other programs (and NFL teams) for years -- there's a reason he's one of the highest-paid coaches in the country. But as Iowa's program becomes more and more of an embarrassment off the field, I can't help but breathe a sigh of relief that Michigan went a different direction -- and I say that following the completion of the worst season in school history.